Subject: RE: Our standing WB offer to support the government of Georgia during the COVID-19 crisis
From: Sebastian-A Molineus <[email-masked]>
To: "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>
Cc: "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, Evgenij Najdov <[email-masked]>, Lire Ersado <[email-masked]>, Abdulaziz Faghi <[email-masked]>, Jan Van Bilsen <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 27 Mar 2020 15:24:15 +0000

Dear Ministers, Dear Ekaterine and Ivane –

Please find attached an updated World Bank paper on Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures.  I trust you will find this paper useful as you design your social protection policy measures
along with our teams within the framework of the upcoming Fast Track COVID-19 Response Facility that your government has requested.

As usual, we stand ready to support and answer any questions you may have.

Kind regards,

Sebastian

Sebastian Molineus

Regional Director for the South Caucasus

Europe and
Central Asia

T
+995 (32) 291 6238

M
+995 (577) 78 7821

M
+1 (202) 492-3914

E
[email-masked]

W
www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca

@smolineus

www.linkedin.com/in/molineus/

From: Sebastian-A Molineus

Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2020 7:12 PM

To: [email-masked]; [email-masked]; [email-masked]; [email-masked]

Cc: [email-masked]; [email-masked]; [email-masked]; [email-masked]; Evgenij Najdov ; Lire Ersado ; Abdulaziz Faghi ; Jan Van Bilsen

Subject: RE: Our standing WB offer to support the government of Georgia during the COVID-19 crisis

Dear colleagues –

Please find attached a note on ‘Managing the Employment Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis’, produced by the World Bank Jobs Group. It reviews a variety of available policy options in a succinct and practical manner, and I hope you find it
useful and timely.

As always, please let me know if you have any questions or would like for us to organize a follow-up discussion with our World Bank experts.

Thank you and kind regards,

Sebastian

Sebastian Molineus

Regional Director for the South Caucasus

Europe
and Central Asia

T
+995 (32) 291 6238

M
+995 (577) 78 7821

M
+1 (202) 492-3914

E
[email-masked]

W
www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca

@smolineus

www.linkedin.com/in/molineus/

From: Sebastian-A Molineus

Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2020 6:27 PM

To: [email-masked];
[email-masked];
[email-masked]; [email-masked]

Cc: [email-masked];
[email-masked];
[email-masked]; Evgenij Najdov <[email-masked]>; Lire Ersado <[email-masked]>; Abdulaziz Faghi <[email-masked]>;
Jan Van Bilsen <[email-masked]>;
[email-masked]

Subject: RE: Our standing WB offer to support the government of Georgia during the COVID-19 crisis

Dear colleagues –

FYI, I am attaching two scientific articles from Harvard University and ISI/ GISC on the effectiveness of social distancing strategies, as well as two World Bank papers, the first of which looks at the lessons-learned from Italy’s COVID-19
response and the second reviewing Global Social Protection Responses to COVID-19, which I know you are contemplating as we speak.  I have summarized key take-aways below:

https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42638988: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is straining healthcare resources worldwide, prompting social distancing measures to reduce transmission intensity. The amount
of social distancing needed to curb the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the context of seasonally varying transmission remains unclear. Using a mathematical model, we assessed that one-time interventions will be insufficient to maintain COVID-19 prevalence within the
critical care capacity of the United States. Seasonal variation in transmission will facilitate epidemic control during the summer months but could lead to an intense resurgence in the autumn. Intermittent distancing measures can maintain control of the epidemic,
but without other interventions, these measures may be necessary into 2022. Increasing critical care capacity could reduce the duration of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic while ensuring that critically ill patients receive appropriate care.

https://covid-19-sds.github.io/assets/pdfs/Preliminary_Report_Effectiveness_of_social_distance_strategies_COVID-19.pdf:
Key findings 1. School closures do not have a major impact on controlling the epidemic, despite closing them, infections keep occurring within the households and the community layers. 2. Passive social distance strategies are not enough to contain the epidemic,
indicating that active strategies need to be established. For instance, large scale testing, remote symptoms monitoring, isolation and contact tracing. 3. School closures and self-distancing at 90% of adoption is a feasible strategy for minimizing the effects
of the epidemic, but only if they are applied for a long period of time. 4. A full confinement is not feasible and will not solve the problem, without active measures in place after the confinement, since there would be a new outbreak. 5. If high resolution
mobility data is available, our data-driven approach with real world data can be easily replicated for new cities or countries to measure the impact of social distance strategies and the epidemic.

Early lessons-learned from Italy: In response to previous epidemics of SARS and MERS, China, Singapore, and South Korea overhauled their emergency systems and strengthened public health and disease surveillance response systems, which enabled a swift
response to the COVID-19 pandemics. Different countries worldwide have different levels of preparedness and have adopted different measures to combat COVID-19 pandemic, offering vital insight into the response. Lack of swift disease detection and containment
measures can lead to overwhelmed health systems swiftly, and exceeding healthcare capacity can further exacerbate the community spread of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19.  Timely disease control measures need to be accompanied with surge capacity to curb the exponential
spread of COVID-19. The evidence suggests that travel restrictions only work if coupled with rapid testing, physical distancing, isolation, infection prevention and Control in HCWs etc. to break the chain of transmission.  In a globalized world where epidemics
and pandemics are increasingly common, pandemic surge planning using the 4 S framework (Space, Stuff, Staff, and System) can enable bolstered surge response. The proposed recommendations contain short, medium, and long-term measures to operationalize surge
response to COVID-19 in Italy; including short-term measures to scale up surge response using the 4 S framework; medium and long-term measures of gap analysis for legislative and institutional reforms, and health system strengthening respectively.

A Global Review of Social Protection Responses to COVID-19: As of March 20, 2020, a total of 45 countries have introduced, adapted or expanded social protection programs in response to COVID-19.
The most widely used measures include: cash transfers (30 programs), followed by wage subsidies (11), subsidized sick leave (10), and various forms of subsidized social security contributions and unemployment insurance.  A total of 13 new cash transfer programs
have been introduced, like for example in Bolivia, India, Iran and Peru.  A universal, one-off cash payment to all citizens will occur in Hong-Kong and Singapore.  New in-kind schemes have also been launched, such as food vouchers in Taiwan and Seattle in
the United States. Countries are adapting existing social assistance programs in various ways, by for instance: (i) anticipating payments of future cash transfer programs (Colombia and Indonesia); (ii) ensuring additional payments, often on a one-off basis
(e.g., Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Turkey); (iii) providing more generous benefit levels (e.g., China); (iv) increasing the coverage of existing cash schemes (e.g., Brazil) and public works (Uzbekistan); (v) enhancing agility by suspending conditionalities
in the UK and Italy; and (vi) providing innovative design solutions, such as school feeding programs delivering food directly to children’s homes or nearby centers (Jamaica and India’s Kerala state) or adapting their financing (Japan).  Income support in the
form of childcare vouchers or allowances were provided in Italy, Poland and South Korea.  Other social assistance programs include support for homeless populations as planned in Spain; utility subsidies waiving fees for basic services are present in El Salvador;
and wavers for loans and other financial obligations (e.g., Bolivia).  Many countries provide cash benefits to crisis-affected self-employed workers (e.g., Ireland, Portugal, New Zealand) and those in the informal sector (India). Some countries (e.g., Netherland)
are reducing work time among the wage employed, combined with paid sick leave. Sweden is reducing the administrative time required for sick-leave payments, while Switzerland is doing so for the unemployment insurance process.  Delivery innovations are also
emerging in Jordan (new cash program using same registration form of existing schemes), Japan (uploading transfers on phones), and Romania (enhanced electronic processes for benefits).

I hope you find these useful.

Kind regards,

Sebastian

Sebastian Molineus

Regional Director for the South Caucasus

Europe
and Central Asia

T
+995 (32) 291 6238

M
+995 (577) 78 7821

M
+1 (202) 492-3914

E
[email-masked]

W
www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca

@smolineus

www.linkedin.com/in/molineus/

From: Sebastian-A Molineus

Sent: Sunday, March 22, 2020 12:31 PM

To: [email-masked];
[email-masked];
[email-masked]

Cc: [email-masked];
[email-masked];
[email-masked]; Evgenij Najdov <[email-masked]>; Lire Ersado <[email-masked]>; Abdulaziz Faghi <[email-masked]>;
Jan Van Bilsen <[email-masked]>

Subject: RE: Our standing WB offer to support the government of Georgia during the COVID-19 crisis

Dear Ministers and Governor, Dear Natia, Ivane, and
Koba -

please find attached a global compendium of financial sector policy measures relevant to combatting the economic fall-out from COVID-19.  The document remains a work in progress
and is in draft form, but given the speed at which everything is evolving I’d rather share this document with you sooner than later.  I will of course continue to share relevant updates with you.  I also share with you a set of broader policy measures undertaken
by the EU member countries, again for info.

COVID-19 outbreak: Classification of Policy Measures Related to the Financial Sector

Draft March 18, 2020

Monetary and liquidity measures

Easing of policy rates

Liquidity support (e.g., OMO/repo, standing facilities, FX, minimum reserve requirements, collateral)

Credit easing (e.g. purchases of corporate, government, MBS paper; outright support to SMEs)

Easing Emergency Liquidity Assistance (e.g., loosening of collateral criteria)

Financial institution measures

Prudential and integrity

Easing/draw down of capital buffers (e.g., counter-cyclical, capital conservation)

Easing limits on large exposures

Easing of liquidity requirements (in foreign and local currency)

Forbearance of NPL classification, past due classification

Suspension of accounting standards (e.g. IFRS 9) or provisioning rules

Lower certain risks weights (e.g., loans with government guarantees)

Easing of macro-prudential measures (e.g., LTVs, DTIs)

Restrictions on dividend payments

Limit foreign exposures of banks and non-bank financial institutions

Ensure compliance of critical conduct and integrity rules to mitigate market abuse

Support for borrowers in affected sectors (e.g., SMEs, tourism, exporters)

Encourage private institutions to provide short-term cash support, waive fees and penalties, etc.

Moratorium on repayments, incl. mortgages (e.g., missed payments added to principal)

Support targeted restructuring of loans

State (partial) guarantees on loans

State subsidies on borrowers’ repayments

State loans to affected companies, sectors (e.g., through state banks or C)

Crisis management

State guarantees on bank liabilities (e.g., deposit guarantees to avert runs)

Freeze on deposit withdrawals

Freeze on withdrawal of open-ended funds

Capital injections, bailouts, bail-ins, and nationalization

Additional (backstop) funding to deposit guarantee schemes

Other measures

Intensification of industry consultation, monitoring of large companies, and key markets

Review business continuity and disaster recovery plans

Review of supervisory reporting requirements and methods as staff cannot access systems

Closing of bank branches and ATMs to prevent COVID-19 spread

Stimulate use of digital payments to prevent COVID-19 spread

Review regulations (KYC) to allow for remote interactions (e.g. refinancing mortgages, SME loans)

Financial markets measures

Market support

FX market interventions by Central Bank

FX swap lines with other Central Banks

Outright asset purchases (e.g., securities of affected companies, sectors)

Market intervention

Halting of trading, bans on (naked) short selling

Temporary restrictions on cross-border capital (out)flows

Public Debt Management measures

Establish basis for decision-making and developing communications strategy

Identify funding from other sources to reduce pressure on traditional wholesale market borrowing

Adapt the funding program to shifts in the demand for government paper

Ensure minimal functionality in the primary and secondary markets

Kind regards,

Sebastian

Sebastian Molineus

Regional Director for the South Caucasus