Subject: Coronavirus : the world economy at risk
From: OECD Economics News <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Mon, 02 Mar 2020 10:14:10 +0000

Insights from Interim Economic Outlook

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The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on economic prospects is severe

The impact on the world through business travel and tourism, supply chains, commodities and lower confidence is growing. Governments must act now.

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OECD considers two scenarios:

Best scenario:

temporary blow

Severe, short-lived downturn in China, where GDP growth falls below 5% in 2020 after 6.1% in 2019, but recovering to 6.4% in 2021.

In Japan, Korea, and Australia, growth also hit hard then gradual recovery.

Impact less severe in other economies but still hit by drop in confidence and supply chain disruption.

Domino scenario:

broader contagion

A longer lasting and more intensive outbreak spreading through the Asia Pacific region, Europe and North America

Global growth could drop to 1.5 per cent in 2020, half the rate projected before the virus outbreak

Recovery much more gradual through 2021.

Tackling the fallout from the coronavirus

The global economy faces its biggest peril since the financial crisis.  What can governments do to address the issues?

Read the blog post

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