Subject: GBD 2020 Causes of Death (CoD) Preliminary Estimates
From: GBD Secretariat <[email-masked]>
To: Ketevan Goginashvili <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 30 May 2020 01:36:08 +0000

Dear Collaborators,

We are pleased to share with you Causes of Death (CoD) preliminary estimates for GBD 2020. Reviewing preliminary estimates is an opportunity available exclusively to GBD Collaborators. This is your chance to review the levels and trends for causes or countries that interest you, and to inform us of any major concerns.

Please note that the deadline for sending comments is Friday, June 12, 2020 at 11:59pm PDT.

Thank you in advance for your time and effort at this important stage.

I. Reviewing the Preliminary Estimates

To enable you to share feedback as efficiently and easily as possible, we have framed two critical questions regarding these estimates. We would greatly appreciate your feedback on these questions:

Based on your expertise in a country or location, are there cases where the level or trend of mortality due to a specific cause does not match the data or the epidemiological profile of the country/location?

Are there data sources we have included that should be marked as outliers (due to unreliable data collection, unrepresentative samples, or other concerns)?

Please Note, there are some known issues in select causes with this version of CoD estimates, but we wanted to share the estimates with you as soon as possible. We have compiled a list of these issues here. Please review this document before commenting.

II. Accessing the Preliminary Estimates

In order to access the estimates within the CoD Visualization Tool (CoDViz), please visit: https://collab2020.healthdata.org/cod

Username: GBDCollaborator

Password: GBD2020

You can find a video from a previous GBD cycle describing how to use the visualization tool to vet results here*. For your reference additional information on navigating CoDViz can be found here.

*PLEASE NOTE: The links and dates in this video are from past years and do not apply; but the techniques and instructions for using CoDViz to vet results are still accurate.

To review the data sources used in each cause model, access the source lists at:

https://cloud.ihme.washington.edu/s/5EBTBJKzYfg5tJL

Password: GBD2020CoD

For reference, the GBD Cause list of fatal causes can be accessed here.

PLEASE SUBMIT YOUR COMMENTS IN THE FORM BELOW:

https://uwhealthmetrics.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_3DAAamilAGl57KZ?Q_DL=YSKIhqlFsMaMGxu_3DAAamilAGl57KZ_CGC_Ak5Wh91s4xnhjyV&Q_CHL=email

III. Important background information on new aspects of these estimates

What is in the GBD 2020 Causes of Death Preliminary Estimates?

These preliminary estimates for GBD 2020 causes of death include:

New locations added for GBD 2020. For this round of GBD, the location changes included were limited to Norway subnationals, where estimates have been updated to reflect the merging of select subnational locations.

Addition of new data sources

New age groups

1-5 months

In GBD 2019 this was part of the Post Neonatal age group

6-11 months

In GBD 2019 this was part of the Post Neonatal age group

12 to 23 months

In GBD 2019 this was part of the 1-4 yrs age group

2 to 4

In GBD 2019 this was part of the 1-4 yrs age group

These preliminary estimates do not include:

Updates to cause-specific modeling methods

Addition of new causes

New data processing methods for both new and previous data sources

Overview of new data sources added for Cause of Death Estimation 2020

In the data addition step of GBD 2020, the following data were added to the database:

Data Type

Number of Location Years Added

Vital Registration

105

Verbal Autopsy

30

Police Records

1

Sibling History

21

Surveillance

6

Survey/Census

66

CHAMPs/MITS

5

What about COVID19?

We know there is great interest in the estimation of the burden due to COVID19. In GBD 2020, estimates for both fatal and non-fatal outcomes for COVID19 will be computed. As COVID19 is a new cause in GBD 2020, we are still working to incorporate it into our estimation which is why you do not see them in this set of preliminary results.

Lastly, please note that you are receiving privileged access to these preliminary results as a GBD collaborator; these results are confidential and should not be cited or circulated.

Thank you again for your collaboration. We look forward to improving these results with your help.

GBD Secretariat

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation | University of Washington

2301 5th Avenue, Suite 600 | Seattle, WA 98121| USA

[email-masked] | http://healthdata.org

Note, by unsubscribing you will no longer receive any emails regarding authorship or draft manuscripts/preliminary results to review. If you are instead interested in updating your areas of expertise or your affiliations, or you have any other questions, please contact the GBD Secretariat at [email-masked]. Click here to unsubscribe.